Based Billionaires won't build the Ethnostate

They have far too much to lose and far too little to gain from such a project

This Photo by Olivia Hutcherson on Unsplash really does look like an American Orania

If you had told me in 2019 that Elon Musk would be openly tweeting heartfelt racist sentiments in seven years, I’d have given you some of my psych meds.

For all the extraordinary developments that have happened since 2020, Elon Musk’s transformation from moderate liberal to openly racist moderate liberal ranks up there with Trump’s re-election.

How could the man once called the real-life Tony Stark become so red-pilled? Is this a genuine change of heart or just a consequence of sleep deprivation and drug abuse? Will Mr. Musk one day see the light? Will he disavow his support for us troglodytic ideologues who obsess over white demographic decline if the Democrats win in 2028 and unleash WOKE 2.0?

Why have so many successful people become more open about their views on race and culture?¹ What are they going to do about these insights? Is there anything that can be done with said insights in any case? Probably not much.

Why Not Much?

Think of all the white nationalist phrases that have entered the modern-day lexicon. In 2015, few liberals would ever say “low IQ,” “dysgenic,” “high-trust,” or “redpill.” In 2026, it’s now common for liberals to argue that racist Republicans are hypocrites for attacking a “high-trust” community like Minneapolis. Even-handed liberal journalists now lampoon conservatives for obsessing over Minnesota’s Scandinavian heritage and whether such lineage caused such resistance.

Right-wing youth aren’t just unintelligent for idealizing wealthy white enclaves such as Newport, Rhode Island, or Aspen, Colorado. Their social ineptitude, loathsome beliefs, and disgusting fixation on racial superiority rightfully bar them from the Newports of the world that vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Self-proclaimed egalitarians now speak and behave as crassly as 4chan addicts. Jared Taylor could only have dreamed of this type of memetic victory in 2015.

However, has this mainstreaming led to any progress? Little, if any. There has yet to be any frank and respectful discussion about group differences. There is practically no desire for Americans to recognize the trade-offs of a majority-minority country. The most learned and successful among us still believe that their civic religion and culture possess an unparalleled assimilative power. Most still insist that diversification is morally correct and economically necessary, even if it is risk-laden. Noah Smith characterized it as difficult but rewarding. Few Americans disagree, even fewer dare disagree openly.

Having failed to lift up the underdeveloped world, our betters now place their faith in immigration. If elegant white papers written by condescending IMF apparatchiks didn’t work, then maybe immersing underprivileged people in Western culture and good institutions will finally spread liberal norms. Think of it as the Solow-Swan model, but for humans instead of countries.

Are Guatemalans, Nigerians, and Filipinos THAT different from Italians, Irish, and Poles? After all, didn’t most bigots claim that Russian Jews and Germans failed to assimilate and threatened to undermine American culture 120 years ago?

Those brave enough to say “full assimilation rarely happens, and there’s no reason to believe Hispanic and Asian Americans will be any different,” continue to be crushed by eye rolls, hostile ridicule, and black opprobrium.

Asking someone, “If culture is the secret to good institutions, why can’t we just export bottles of the magic sauce over there so they don’t have to emigrate?” puts you on the naughty list, unless your name is Garrett Jones. No more charcuterie plates for you!

The rise of white nationalist rhetoric, semiotics, and consciousness did bear fruit, but much of the harvest is modest and fragile.

The White birth rate has increased since late 2024, albeit from a low base; there has yet to be a persistent upward trajectory. During Trump’s first term, white births went through a similar bump, only to keep falling later on.

Granted, there is now an almost perfect correlation between being a White Trump supporter and having kids, but liberal whites in big, productive cities such as DC or Portland are as fertile as Koreans! Some believe that this heralds the end of liberal dominance, but liberals have proved adept at converting conservative kids for ages. The Republican fertility advantage, nearly half a century old, has yet to be a game-changer.

Some hard-edged bean counters will say, “Black and Latino fertility continues to fall! Asian fertility is on the floor. Once we close the borders, we’ll have our country back!” Let’s suppose this is true. It will only be fuel for the Democrats to jack up immigration for moral and practical purposes. Remember, the Democrats are not stupid. They know that immigration and diversity are key to their survival. Do you think they’ll let the Bidenwave backlash stop them?

To Trump’s credit, illegal and legal immigration has fallen thanks to deportations and executive action. However, we are still far off from 15 million deportations. Permanently reducing legal immigration will require passing major legislation since executive orders can be reversed.

Trump’s success has elicited a deeply emotional backlash. The Minneapolis mishaps have turned immigration into a moral crusade. Blue America has always been wedded to making America the world’s greatest, ever more inclusive multiracial social democracy. It’s no longer a grand vision but the core of their social-democratic program.

Nerdier right-wingers, cognizant of this quiet revolution, are now complaining that Stephen Miller’s policies are counterproductive. Bernard Stanford and Noah Carl are too intelligent to believe Federal E-Verify (among other tough technical fixes) would be efficacious. They are simply preparing for the worst when Woke reasserts itself with a vengeance.

Elon Musk is not your savior

So why doesn’t Elon Musk put some of his millions toward American Renaissance or toward people with credible plans to build those safe havens?

Musk already donates considerable sums to the Republican Party. Giving a fraction of that money to the Orania movement or the Western Cape Independence campaign would turbocharge their prospects. Orania could continue to industrialize its economy. Capetonian secessionists would have the firepower to run real campaigns.

If the liberal majority believes ever-greater diversity is non-negotiable, then building prosperous and self-sufficient safe havens would be far more effective than holding the White House half the time. If the Democrats just keep jacking up immigration when they hold the presidency, then you’re fighting a losing game.

Granted, the existence of an explicit white polity in the United States (or any country) would be treated as a malign entity. If American Orania were even remotely successful, it’s almost certain that the Democrats would try to end it.

Then again, why should Elon and his friends spend millions building a town for racists if they could spend that money helping humans settle Mars and accelerate automation? Reverse global warming through geoengineering and restore worldwide productivity growth, and this will almost certainly reduce emigration to Western countries. You won’t be maligned if your money helps Nigerian entrepreneurs adopt AGI en masse.

However, Musk and others have already burned most of their bridges with Blue America. He could disavow Trump and blame his right-wing turn on social media addiction. He could even argue that the redemptive power of the American civic religion entitles him to be given a second chance. If Richard Hanania can be rehabilitated, why not the man who revolutionized electric cars and pioneered the use and manufacture of reusable rockets?

The problem is that millions of people have read his heartfelt tweets about crashing birthrates. Millions more have seen him retweet screeds against growing ethnic diversity.

There is scarcely an informed person in the world who hasn’t heard Elon talk more openly about his fear for the future of Western civilization, his race, and the fate of Europe.

He’s already given speeches arguing that the AfD is a sensible moderate party. Millions have heard his bitter complaints about the suicidal empathy of white liberal women.

Even though he rarely speaks about his early life in Pretoria, he still opposes the ANC with a deeply suppressed fury only seen in former South Africans. You don’t give President Ramaphosa a death stare if you are apathetic about your old home.

Elon has nothing to lose, and he clearly cares. So what is stopping him?

Nobody Wants To Do Something That Will Ruin Their Future

Would you really leave Seattle, Palo Alto, or London just to spend all your time with people of the same skin color?

Would you give up dinner parties with Korean neuroscientists and Ghanaian coders so you could change diapers and raise four white kids?

Do you want to spend the rest of your life foregoing millions in potential earnings just to install solar panels on a scorching day? Are you ready to give up the opera, dinner parties, and the esteem of your friends and family to build a white town?

Are you strong enough to endure the hatred of men and women who once loved you to build a white state somewhere in this broken world?

If I’m being honest, fewer than 1 in 10 people reading this piece would make that sacrifice. The ones best placed to lead and grow a White Homeland have much better things to do.

Elon Musk and many of his contemporaries may have the money, talent, and desire to build an ethnostate, but they don’t see it as their lodestar.

This is not to say that their beliefs are insincere or that their newfound race consciousness is a form of shallow virtue signalling. Why else would Musk, Thiel, and Andreessen spend so much time railing against DEI or supporting Alice Weidel’s campaigns? Their honesty doesn’t pay, does it?

Your favorite based billionaire isn’t building the ethnostate for the same reasons why you wouldn’t even if you had a billion dollars to burn.

Right now, extraordinary right-wing men and women are designing rockets, mastering the art of solar radiation management, and researching controversial topics. Their days are filled with purpose, meaning, and opportunities to make money. They are enjoying the luxury and satisfaction that only come from the highest levels of honest work. Why would they give any of that up?

Besides, like you, they can always tweet about their frustrations on X and vote Republican like the rest of us.²

1. Marc Andreessen is increasingly forthright about his belief that elite institutions discriminate against conservative White or “the Trump coalition,” as he calls it. Garry Tan has become notorious for defending Asian American excellence in his best GPT prose whenever slighted.

2. And before you tell me how the party is fundamentally impotent, just know that I’m one of the few people who still opposes gay marriage.