Andy Burnham Will Not Make Britain Rich Again
(Unless He Does This One Weird Thing)
Andy Burnham, the Labour Party’s eternal bridesmaid of the 2010s, has finally done something few professional politicos thought was possible just months ago. He successfully defenestrated Sir Keir Starmer, one of the few people in British history to have taken the Labour Party from opposition to government. A man who, having never ingratiated himself with the British voter, won a majority of 172 only two years ago.
Mr. Burnham will be the first Irish Catholic and the second elected English mayor to ascend to the top office. The only other PM that could boast such an astonishing rise was Boris Johnson, the man who delivered Brexit. For devolutionists, this ought to have been a moment of great elation. An interesting politician whose political career was nearly emaciated by poor triangulation and two humiliating defeats found redemption by leaving the center, governing Manchester well, and becoming genuinely authentic. If nothing else, his ascendency proves that the South East of England is no longer the only place where the United Kingdom’s future is forged.
However, the first few weeks of his premiership have been anything but transformational. His more or less sensible cabinet appointments show how long he’s been away from the center of things. Much-needed fresh blood was set aside in favor of a team consisting of old-timers, former roommates, and the British center left’s favorite emotional support animals. There’s been no sign of urgency or new energy in implementing the much-needed structural changes necessary to restore Britain’s economic prosperity. Rachel Reeves was often called tone-deaf and useless, but she did have the capacity to make difficult choices, and productivity growth was starting to show green shoots under her chancellorship. Her replacement, John Healey, doesn’t seem any more capable than she, beyond knowing how to eat potato chips on camera and having a common touch. I am told this is no small thing, but I’ve yet to be promoted after gobbling down a packet of Lays.
Burnham seems to be a person who is comfortable doing what conventional social democrats love doing when they cannot face reality: spending other people’s money on well-intentioned baubles and promising transformation with a better version of some existing government program.
If this is a preview of the next three years, then the likelihood of Britain ever economically re-converging with Northwestern Europe is slim, if not non-existent. The only thing keeping him from driving UK plc into an even deeper ditch will be the brave Bond Vigilantes of Hudson Yards who’ve made themselves the unloved and unsung enforcers of fiscal reality.
When autonomy collides with inequality
One of the persistent problems that keeps otherwise intelligent policymakers from fixing the United Kingdom’s economy is not so much the fear of losing re-election as the perception that their policies will worsen regional inequality.
Even though devolution has become the settled will in much of Britain (especially in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Northern England), your average Brit still possesses a deep hostility to anything that smacks of what they call a “postcode lottery”. This has led to a harmful, counterproductive system that stifles genuine divergence and experimentation.
For my English readers, have you personally seen your neighborhood or your surrounding area become tidier in recent years?
For my readers in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, does the hospital Wi-Fi make you brag to your English friends about how enlightened your country is?
For my British subscribers, when was the last time you sat down on the couch, turned on the news, and saw evidence of a councilor somewhere in the UK using the local power they had to do something truly different, let alone successful? You haven’t because that’s not how the system is supposed to work.
One of the dirty secrets of economics that most economists are loath to admit is the law of internal divergence1. As a country grows richer, the gap between superstar cities and left-behind towns actually widens, even as everyone’s paycheck goes up. Improved governance, such as simpler tax systems, supercharges Milton Keynes and Warrington because they have smarter residents who work in cutting-edge businesses with trade links with the rest of the world. These networks and advantages deepen as their newly enabled hard work continues paying dividends.
This isn’t just a question of the rich getting richer. When it becomes easier to form a high-risk, high-reward startup, secure a major loan to upgrade a factory, or even just find the money to beautify a public park or enhance a municipal swimming pool, dynamic places with ambitious people are just going to leap much further with the newfound freedom they have. Some countries, like the United States, are far better at justifying this than others. Generations of Buffalonians, Clevelanders, and Shreveporters know that if you can’t compete, you're shit out of luck, and no one’s going to bail you out. You can’t complain when the buck stops with you, so best get workin’.
The United Kingdom is much different. Regional equality isn’t just a question of bad politicians and bad policies; it strikes at the heart of trauma, status, and history. Everyone, and I mean everyone, knows someone who went to London or Cambridge and either never came back or only returned decades later with deep wrinkles and greying hair. Everyone knows someone with a gorgeous home that was only able to afford it because they spent so many years working like a dog in an Oxford Lab or a Manchester office. Everyone knows someone with an English-accented child who still does not truly understand how painful it was for mum to leave Lisburn so he could be raised and educated in Lymington.
For all of us to win the long term, most of us are going to have to lose one way or another. That is why Andy Burnham will not make Britain rich again unless he does this one weird thing: allow winners to win and losers to lose. But let’s be honest, would you do that if you were in his position?
This isn’t actually a law, but more of what ChatGPT calls a recurring tendency. It’s not inevitable, but very likely whenever an economy grows. You can read nerd shit here: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-regional-outlook-2023_92cd40a0-en/full-report/component-7.html